The Mobile Internet Report - MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH - Dec 2009

The Mobile Internet Report
Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet, the Mobile Internet Will Be Bigger than Most Think

Material wealth creation / destruction should surpass earlier computing cycles. The mobile Internet cycle, the 5th cycle in 50 years, is just starting. Winners in each cycle often create more market capitalization than in the last. New winners emerge, some incumbents survive - or thrive - while many past winners falter.

The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did, and we believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years.

Five IP-based products / services are growing / converging and providing the underpinnings for dramatic growth in mobile Internet usage - 3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices.

Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar for how users connect / communicate - their respective ramps in user and developer engagement may be unprecedented.

Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps for mobile Internet in Japan plus desktop Internet in developed markets provide roadmaps for global ramp and monetization.

Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and equipment providers.

Emerging markets have material potential for mobile Internet user growth. Low penetration of fixed-line telephone and already vibrant mobile value-added services mean that for many EM users and SMEs, the Internet will be mobile.

We use a data-rich, theme-based framework for thinking about how the rapidly emerging / changing mobile Internet may evolve. One thing is clear: new computing cycles create / destroy material wealth - and the mobile Internet cycle should be no different. For our compilation of well positioned / potentially challenged / unclearly positioned companies, see pages 11-13.

This report is structured as a PowerPoint presentation based on the 8 themes highlighted to the right. Each theme is preceded by an overview that sets the stage for the slides. Additionally, we compiled 'The Mobile Internet Report Setup' presentation (pages 9-59), which highlights the key takeaways of our work. This report is optimally viewed on a screen or as a color print out.

Key Themes
1. Wealth Creation / Destruction Material in New Computing Cycles - In Early Innings of Mobile Internet Cycle ......61
2. Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet - Five Trends Converging ............83
3. Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation + Impact.......127
4. Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) Emerging ...................185
5. Growth / Monetization Roadmaps (Japan + Desktop Internet) ........221
6. Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier / Equipment Transitions ......271
7. Compelling Opportunities in Emerging Markets .....................357
8. Regulatory Impact ................................................397

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